Saturday, August 7, 2010

Does Iran have a nuclear bomb?

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron (who I admire in some ways) has made a number of gaffes at the podium of late. Most recently Cameron said that "Iran has got a nuclear weapon." Compare this statement with President Ahmadinejad's comment that "England is a small island west of Africa.".

Cameron we can assume made a slip of tongue and Ahmadinejad was trying perhaps to belittle the U.K. The Islamic Republic of Iran rarely misses out on an opportunity to humiliate and belittle the UK.

 Still, perhaps we should momentarily consider the idea that Iran could already have a nuclear weapon. We are now living 30 years after the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Seeing that Iran has always seen itself as surrounded by enemies why would wait until now to develop a nuclear weapon? The major political events of the past decade have gone in Iran's favor. Iran is less threatened today that it was before. Iran no longer faces threats from Saddam Hussein's Iraq, a Taliban lead Afghanistan or for that matter a strong Pakistan.

For Iran the best time to build a nuke was perhaps during the Iran-Iraq War. Iraq had  its own nuclear weapons program at the time. Also, let's not forget Iran borders Pakistan, a nation which has in the past been willing to sell nuclear weapons technology. Did Dr. Abdul Kadeer Khan or someone similar ever approach Iran? Finally, while researching my M.A thesis I discovered news reports from the mid-1990s about Israeli intelligance projections that Iran would have nuclear weapons in a few years. Ofcourse, such projections come out all the time such as this report.

Regardless, the international efforts to resolve the present crisis should continue and on that note, here is an interesting read on the Iranian negotiating style.

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